Ex-Shanghai ocean freight rates edge up to new record highs

Ex-Shanghai ocean freight rates edged up to new record highs last week due to continuing strong demand and ongoing bottlenecks and capacity constraints – exacerbated and prolonged by the knock-on effects of last month’s blockage of the Suez Canal.

Freight and logistics investment analyst Jefferies highlighted that the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) had increased by a further 5% last week to $2,980/TEU, “a new record-high, 250% ahead of this week last year, and up 204% on average YTD (for the year-to-date period compared with 2020 levels)”.

It noted that “the normalisation of the container market is taking longer than expected”, while on the demand side, “container demand is supported by the greatest re-stocking cycle on record in the US”, in which US container imports surged by an estimated 68% in March, year on year. 

Jefferies expects freight rates to normalise in the second half of this year, although that was mitigated for carriers by higher contract rates – which it estimated were up by around 50%.

Looking at the potential implications of this for the profitability of ocean carriers such as Maersk, Jefferies noted: “Maersk’s updated FY21E consensus EBITDA has increased by $1.4bn since Jan, to $11.5bn, ahead of FY21E guidance of $8.5bn-$10.5bn, assuming a 15% increase in container freight rates. We think consensus still looks relatively low and estimate FY21E EBITDA at $14.5bn, based on a 25% increase in freight rates.”

Meanwhile, Drewry’s composite World Container index, its combined freight rate assessment on eight major East-West trades, “inched up” 0.2% or $8 to $4,913 per 40ft container. The average composite index of the WCI, assessed by Drewry for year-to-date, is $5,096 per 40ft container, which is $3,292 higher than the five-year average of $1,804 per 40ft container.

Freight rates on Shanghai-Genoa saw the strongest rise of 3%, rising $264 to stand at $7,919 for a 40ft container. Rates on Shanghai-Los Angeles edged up a further 2% last week or $71 to $4,209 for a 40ft box.

Transatlantic prices also edged upwards, with rates on the headhaul Rotterdam-New York market inching up $19 or 1% to $2,642 per feu. Conversely, rates on Shanghai-Rotterdam dropped $147 to come in at $7,831 for a 40ft box and those on Shanghai-New York fell $78 to $6,255 per feu.

Drewry expect the index to remain stable this week.