Shipper shift from congestion impacts trans-Pacific ocean rates

 A shift by shippers from the congested US West Coast to the East Coast may be impacting freight rates on routes from Asia, according to the latest international freight update published by digital rates specialist Freightos, which incorporates the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX).

It noted that Asia-US West Coast ocean rates have fallen 13% from their February peak, while Asia-US East Coast rates have fallen only 5% from their high, and are still up 16% on the levels recorded at the end of 2020.

China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell 5% on last week to $4,292/FEU. This rate is 224% higher than the same time last year.

China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) increased 6% to $5,716/FEU, and are 125% higher than rates for this week last year.

“Port congestion and delays are still a problem at the port of LA/Long Beach, and all indications are that there won’t be any meaningful decrease in ocean freight demand in the near future: Though February Asia-US import volumes were down 18% from January, they were still at about the peak pre-Lunar New Year level of January 2020, and March volumes are expected to be up month on month,” explained Freightos' Research Lead, Judah Levine.

“But there are reports of it getting easier for shippers to secure capacity out of Asia to the US. Some of this easing may be due to importers shifting orders from LA/LB to other ports, just as carriers are adding new Asia-US East Coast services too.”

He continued: “And spot rates may be starting to reflect that shift. Asia-US West Coast prices have now fallen 13% from their February high, and are just 11% higher than their May-December plateau rate. Meanwhile, Asia-US East Coast rates increased this week. They are just 5% below their January peak, and are 16% higher than they were in December.”

Turning to transatlantic trade lanes, Levine noted that demand continues to be strong, with ocean rates increasing 20% since the end of January, and the lifting of US-UK tariffs likely to encourage trade on this lane. 

“And the same trend is taking hold in transatlantic air cargo, where forwarder search volume on WebCargo, (Freightos' real-time air cargo booking, pricing, and capacity solution) shows an increase of 30% since the start of the year, a level maintained since the beginning of February,” he added.